The world is in the midst of a major energy transition as major economies move to decarbonize the existing energy system in response to climate change and falling costs for renewable energy. During this interim period where the new net zero, low carbon energy system has begun to be built but the historical fossil fuel-based energy system has yet to be retired, a lack of integration and planning between the two systems is imposing costs on consumers and businesses and, in some instances, leading to energy price volatility and renewed concerns about energy security. During this interim period of “mid-transition,” neither cleantech infrastructure nor existing oil and gas installations can fully meet global energy needs on their own, creating new problems and concerns for energy security.
The United States currently plays a preeminent role in global energy security, both as an energy supplier and as a protector of the flows of vital energy resources. The US military plays a leading global security role ensuring that the transportation of the world’s vital oil, natural gas, and other energy commodities is not interdicted. But as countries transition to cleaner forms of energy, the geopolitics of energy is changing. Greater use of renewable energy is expected to more than double the share of electricity in the global energy system, rising from about 20 percent today to over 50 percent by 2050, shifting the nature of energy-related supply chains and security challenges to energy systems. Defending electricity networks will require different strategic skills and assets than have dominated protecting the flow of oil, including cyber security, equipment manufacturing, and access to critical minerals.
As electricity becomes more ubiquitous across a wider spectrum of critical activities, beyond lighting, heating, and cooling, to inputs for the operations of artificial intelligence and digital data, transport vehicles, and manufacturing and industrial processes, electricity grids will become a central focus of national security. Supply chains for materials and equipment for electrical grids will become increasingly important. And, in a more electrified world, countries that host cross border electricity hubs will see geopolitical gains while those who can threaten such hubs could use such leverage to gain geopolitical influence.
GECS Lab research on energy transition and geopolitics will look systematically at how increasing concern regarding the security of electricity grids influence future energy geopolitics and what technologies and expertise will facilitate more resilient and secure energy systems. The Lab will also consider the geopolitics of new and emerging fuels as well as the impact of energy transition on the security and geopolitics of traditional energy suppliers and their exports.